在建立工程基础设施的预测模型时，提出了人群级分析来解决数据稀疏性。利用可解释的层次贝叶斯方法和操作车队数据，域专业知识是自然编码（并适当共享）在不同的子组之间，代表（i）使用型，（ii）组件或（iii）操作条件。具体而言，利用领域专业知识来通过假设（和先前的分布）来限制模型，从而使该方法可以自动共享相似资产之间的信息，从而改善了对风电场中卡车机队和权力预测的生存分析。在每个资产管理示例中，在合并的推理中学习了一组相关的功能，以学习人口模型。当允许子型在层次结构中的不同级别共享相关信息时，参数估计得到改善。反过来，数据不完整的组会自动从数据丰富的组中借用统计强度。统计相关性使知识转移能够通过贝叶斯转移学习，并且可以检查相关性，以告知哪些资产共享有关哪些效果（即参数）的信息。两种案例研究的成功都证明了实践基础设施监测的广泛适用性，因为该方法自然适应了不同原位示例的可解释的车队模型。

Designing experiments often requires balancing between learning about the true treatment effects and earning from allocating more samples to the superior treatment. While optimal algorithms for the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem (MABP) provide allocation policies that optimally balance learning and earning, they tend to be computationally expensive. The Gittins Index (GI) is a solution to the MABP that can simultaneously attain optimality and computationally efficiency goals, and it has been recently used in experiments with Bernoulli and Gaussian rewards. For the first time, we present a modification of the GI rule that can be used in experiments with exponentially-distributed rewards. We report its performance in simulated 2- armed and 3-armed experiments. Compared to traditional non-adaptive designs, our novel GI modified design shows operating characteristics comparable in learning (e.g. statistical power) but substantially better in earning (e.g. direct benefits). This illustrates the potential that designs using a GI approach to allocate participants have to improve participant benefits, increase efficiencies, and reduce experimental costs in adaptive multi-armed experiments with exponential rewards.

Kernels are efficient in representing nonlocal dependence and they are widely used to design operators between function spaces. Thus, learning kernels in operators from data is an inverse problem of general interest. Due to the nonlocal dependence, the inverse problem can be severely ill-posed with a data-dependent singular inversion operator. The Bayesian approach overcomes the ill-posedness through a non-degenerate prior. However, a fixed non-degenerate prior leads to a divergent posterior mean when the observation noise becomes small, if the data induces a perturbation in the eigenspace of zero eigenvalues of the inversion operator. We introduce a data-adaptive prior to achieve a stable posterior whose mean always has a small noise limit. The data-adaptive prior's covariance is the inversion operator with a hyper-parameter selected adaptive to data by the L-curve method. Furthermore, we provide a detailed analysis on the computational practice of the data-adaptive prior, and demonstrate it on Toeplitz matrices and integral operators. Numerical tests show that a fixed prior can lead to a divergent posterior mean in the presence of any of the four types of errors: discretization error, model error, partial observation and wrong noise assumption. In contrast, the data-adaptive prior always attains posterior means with small noise limits.

In the Earth's magnetosphere, there are fewer than a dozen dedicated probes beyond low-Earth orbit making in-situ observations at any given time. As a result, we poorly understand its global structure and evolution, the mechanisms of its main activity processes, magnetic storms, and substorms. New Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods, including machine learning, data mining, and data assimilation, as well as new AI-enabled missions will need to be developed to meet this Sparse Data challenge.

Machine learning (ML) models are nowadays used in complex applications in various domains, such as medicine, bioinformatics, and other sciences. Due to their black box nature, however, it may sometimes be hard to understand and trust the results they provide. This has increased the demand for reliable visualization tools related to enhancing trust in ML models, which has become a prominent topic of research in the visualization community over the past decades. To provide an overview and present the frontiers of current research on the topic, we present a State-of-the-Art Report (STAR) on enhancing trust in ML models with the use of interactive visualization. We define and describe the background of the topic, introduce a categorization for visualization techniques that aim to accomplish this goal, and discuss insights and opportunities for future research directions. Among our contributions is a categorization of trust against different facets of interactive ML, expanded and improved from previous research. Our results are investigated from different analytical perspectives: (a) providing a statistical overview, (b) summarizing key findings, (c) performing topic analyses, and (d) exploring the data sets used in the individual papers, all with the support of an interactive web-based survey browser. We intend this survey to be beneficial for visualization researchers whose interests involve making ML models more trustworthy, as well as researchers and practitioners from other disciplines in their search for effective visualization techniques suitable for solving their tasks with confidence and conveying meaning to their data.

Language Models appear to perform poorly on quantification. We ask how badly. 'Few'-type quantifiers, as in 'few children like vegetables' might pose a particular challenge for Language Models, since the sentence components without the quantifier are likely to co-occur, and because 'few'-type quantifiers are rare. We present 960 sentences stimuli from two human neurolinguistic experiments to 22 autoregressive transformer models of differing sizes. Not only do the models perform poorly on 'few'-type quantifiers, but overall the larger the model, the worse its performance. We interpret this inverse scaling as suggesting that larger models increasingly reflect online rather than offline human processing, and argue that decreasing performance of larger models may challenge uses of Language Models as the basis for Natural Language Systems.

In this work, we give efficient algorithms for privately estimating a Gaussian distribution in both pure and approximate differential privacy (DP) models with optimal dependence on the dimension in the sample complexity. In the pure DP setting, we give an efficient algorithm that estimates an unknown $d$-dimensional Gaussian distribution up to an arbitrary tiny total variation error using $\widetilde{O}(d^2 \log \kappa)$ samples while tolerating a constant fraction of adversarial outliers. Here, $\kappa$ is the condition number of the target covariance matrix. The sample bound matches best non-private estimators in the dependence on the dimension (up to a polylogarithmic factor). We prove a new lower bound on differentially private covariance estimation to show that the dependence on the condition number $\kappa$ in the above sample bound is also tight. Prior to our work, only identifiability results (yielding inefficient super-polynomial time algorithms) were known for the problem. In the approximate DP setting, we give an efficient algorithm to estimate an unknown Gaussian distribution up to an arbitrarily tiny total variation error using $\widetilde{O}(d^2)$ samples while tolerating a constant fraction of adversarial outliers. Prior to our work, all efficient approximate DP algorithms incurred a super-quadratic sample cost or were not outlier-robust. For the special case of mean estimation, our algorithm achieves the optimal sample complexity of $\widetilde O(d)$, improving on a $\widetilde O(d^{1.5})$ bound from prior work. Our pure DP algorithm relies on a recursive private preconditioning subroutine that utilizes the recent work on private mean estimation [Hopkins et al., 2022]. Our approximate DP algorithms are based on a substantial upgrade of the method of stabilizing convex relaxations introduced in [Kothari et al., 2022].

In this work, we demonstrate the offline FPGA realization of both recurrent and feedforward neural network (NN)-based equalizers for nonlinearity compensation in coherent optical transmission systems. First, we present a realization pipeline showing the conversion of the models from Python libraries to the FPGA chip synthesis and implementation. Then, we review the main alternatives for the hardware implementation of nonlinear activation functions. The main results are divided into three parts: a performance comparison, an analysis of how activation functions are implemented, and a report on the complexity of the hardware. The performance in Q-factor is presented for the cases of bidirectional long-short-term memory coupled with convolutional NN (biLSTM + CNN) equalizer, CNN equalizer, and standard 1-StpS digital back-propagation (DBP) for the simulation and experiment propagation of a single channel dual-polarization (SC-DP) 16QAM at 34 GBd along 17x70km of LEAF. The biLSTM+CNN equalizer provides a similar result to DBP and a 1.7 dB Q-factor gain compared with the chromatic dispersion compensation baseline in the experimental dataset. After that, we assess the Q-factor and the impact of hardware utilization when approximating the activation functions of NN using Taylor series, piecewise linear, and look-up table (LUT) approximations. We also show how to mitigate the approximation errors with extra training and provide some insights into possible gradient problems in the LUT approximation. Finally, to evaluate the complexity of hardware implementation to achieve 400G throughput, fixed-point NN-based equalizers with approximated activation functions are developed and implemented in an FPGA.

Recently, automated co-design of machine learning (ML) models and accelerator architectures has attracted significant attention from both the industry and academia. However, most co-design frameworks either explore a limited search space or employ suboptimal exploration techniques for simultaneous design decision investigations of the ML model and the accelerator. Furthermore, training the ML model and simulating the accelerator performance is computationally expensive. To address these limitations, this work proposes a novel neural architecture and hardware accelerator co-design framework, called CODEBench. It is composed of two new benchmarking sub-frameworks, CNNBench and AccelBench, which explore expanded design spaces of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and CNN accelerators. CNNBench leverages an advanced search technique, BOSHNAS, to efficiently train a neural heteroscedastic surrogate model to converge to an optimal CNN architecture by employing second-order gradients. AccelBench performs cycle-accurate simulations for a diverse set of accelerator architectures in a vast design space. With the proposed co-design method, called BOSHCODE, our best CNN-accelerator pair achieves 1.4% higher accuracy on the CIFAR-10 dataset compared to the state-of-the-art pair, while enabling 59.1% lower latency and 60.8% lower energy consumption. On the ImageNet dataset, it achieves 3.7% higher Top1 accuracy at 43.8% lower latency and 11.2% lower energy consumption. CODEBench outperforms the state-of-the-art framework, i.e., Auto-NBA, by achieving 1.5% higher accuracy and 34.7x higher throughput, while enabling 11.0x lower energy-delay product (EDP) and 4.0x lower chip area on CIFAR-10.

Machine Learning models capable of handling the large datasets collected in the financial world can often become black boxes expensive to run. The quantum computing paradigm suggests new optimization techniques, that combined with classical algorithms, may deliver competitive, faster and more interpretable models. In this work we propose a quantum-enhanced machine learning solution for the prediction of credit rating downgrades, also known as fallen-angels forecasting in the financial risk management field. We implement this solution on a neutral atom Quantum Processing Unit with up to 60 qubits on a real-life dataset. We report competitive performances against the state-of-the-art Random Forest benchmark whilst our model achieves better interpretability and comparable training times. We examine how to improve performance in the near-term validating our ideas with Tensor Networks-based numerical simulations.